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~~~ WORST CASE acca ~~~
Not much to say : a bad day for the FE guys: 3 down out of 5
My reservations about Sevilla were right ; they are decent side and had won away..
Was wrong about advising a LAY of Milan though. They’d won easily.
1 Genoa v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 5.3) 3-0
2 Bari v AC Milan (Laying AC Milan @ 2.36) 0-2
3 Mallorca v Sevilla (Laying Sevilla @ 3.12) 1-3
4 Rennes v Lille (Laying Lille @ 3.66) 1-2
5 Blackburn v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 5.07) 3-0
~~~ BEST CASE acca ~~~
Since only 2 games came up , the returns did not help much : only cca 10% of the stake had been returned.
On the plus side for FE , their SHORT LIST has had a good week with 4 wins out of 5 ; if I’d only placed the bets on their short list !!
***
I will have to do some OS repairs (repairing my Windows OS that is ) so that I might not post that oftenly next week..
As per usual I will have a slice of the recommendations sent by the F Elite guys.
I will have a BEST CASE acca and a WORST CASE acca:
~~~ WORST CASE acca ~~~
Ie: laying the opposite team of their tips.
1 Genoa v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 5.3)
2 Bari v AC Milan (Laying AC Milan @ 2.36)
3 Mallorca v Sevilla (Laying Sevilla @ 3.12)
4 Rennes v Lille (Laying Lille @ 3.66)
5 Blackburn v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 5.07)
5-Folds
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4 and 5 5.42 £0.50 £2.21
4-Folds
Trebles
Have covered for 4-folds and trebles too
For a start , according to my analysis , I think that both Udine and Sevilla have the potential of getting points away from home. Strangely enough I agree with Milan being a LAY..
But I will abide by the rule and implement exactly what they are telling me..
~~~ BEST CASE acca ~~~
Ie: backing their tips – straightforwardly – in an acca though
5 Selections Chosen
1 Blackburn v Bolton (Backing Blackburn @ 1.92)
2 Rennes v Lille (Backing Rennes @ 2.34)
3 Genoa v Udinese (Backing Genoa @ 1.92)
4 Bari v AC Milan (Backing Bari @ 3.54)
5 Mallorca v Sevilla (Backing Mallorca @ 2.55)
5-Folds
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4 and 5 78.97 £0.10 £7.80
4-Folds
Trebles
Doubles
Because the odds are so good, I have covered for 4-folds, trebles and doubles too
Friday results
One down : Hoffenheim v Mgladbach
1 Brescia v Ascoli (Laying Ascoli @ 6.42) 2-1
2 Bury v Shrewsbury (Laying Shrewsbury @ 4.2) 1-0
3 Maritimo v Nacional (Laying Nacional @ 4.2) 1-1
4 Hoffenheim v Mgladbach (Laying The Draw @ 3.87) 2-2
5 Roda JC v Heracles (Laying The Draw @ 3.93) 2-1
Got some of the stake back (80%) ;so no(t much) harm done.
Perhaps a good tactic when the odds are so lo to cover myself for only ONE MATCH DOWN.
In this case I should have covered only for 4-folds. It makes sense in the end as the high LAY odds indicate a higher degree of probability; hence the observations that for these types of accas (low BACK odds or high LAY odds) it makes sense to cover myself for only ONE MATCH DOWN. (need to remember this extra rule)
The equalizer in the German match happened two minutes before the final whistle.
So I missed the last stop of the German acca express .
Regarding the German league . here is what some of the other bloggers (http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/) are saying :
>>>
Not that I needed to, but I did actually finish off the Bundesliga ratings yesterday. The results weren’t that great overall – of the big leagues, Germany was the worst for some reason hitting at an overall rate of 23.23%. It seems to be a league where anything can happen, and often does.
<<<
It seems that I miss a lot of these German legs of the accumulators ..
At least their trains are more accurate.
A smallish kind of acca for a quiet Friday evening
5 Selections Chosen
1 Brescia v Ascoli (Laying Ascoli @ 6.42)
2 Bury v Shrewsbury (Laying Shrewsbury @ 4.2)
3 Maritimo v Nacional (Laying Nacional @ 4.2)
4 Hoffenheim v Mgladbach (Laying The Draw @ 3.87)
5 Roda JC v Heracles (Laying The Draw @ 3.93)
5-Folds
4-Folds
Trebles
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2 and 3 2.04 £0.10 £0.10
1,2 and 4 2.09
4-folds and trebles had been covered too
As per the recent trend , one match scuppered the acca.
Some strange ref. decisions gifted the match to Bayern though. I guess it evens out..
5 Selections Chosen
1 Karlsruhe v 1860 Munich (Laying The Draw @ 3.66) 3-1
2 Newcastle v Coventry (Backing Newcastle @ 1.45) 4-1
3 B Munich v Fiorentina (Backing B Munich @ 1.42) 2-1
4 Porto v Arsenal (Laying Arsenal @ 3.76) 2-1
5 C Palace v Reading (Laying Reading @ 3.39) 1-3
The returned monies were in the region of 80% of the original stake
The prices weren’t that good I must say..
As you can see this technique (of covering X-folds) allows you to march forward even if your stake is marginally corroded. Once a full acca comes in , all of these small corrosions would be compensated.
There is a psychological factor in it – in that you do get something back ; it’s less punishing than when you lose the entire acca stake..
Do not think I will be posting anything for tomorrow ..
PS
The betfair world was up in arms because of some Betfair outage that happened when the matches were supposed to finish. Lots of people lost money because of that..
Not much to elaborate on todays set of matches .
The lay of Arsenal is based on the fact that Arsenal have a few players injured.
I might drop a few pennies on them is they take the lead (just to cover the acca stake )
Would have liked to add some scottish games too but I could not find them among the multiples at Betfair
5 Selections Chosen
1 Karlsruhe v 1860 Munich (Laying The Draw @ 3.66)
2 Newcastle v Coventry (Backing Newcastle @ 1.45)
3 B Munich v Fiorentina (Backing B Munich @ 1.42)
4 Porto v Arsenal (Laying Arsenal @ 3.76)
5 C Palace v Reading (Laying Reading @ 3.39)
5-Folds
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4 and 5 5.54 £0.50 £2.27
4-Folds
Trebles
Have covered for trebles and 4-folds too
The OVERS ACCA could have been better as I have only hit 2 OVERS out of 5
5 Selections Chosen
1 Bristol City v Leicester – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.24)
1-1
2 Plymouth v Swansea – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.58)
1-1
3 Lyon v Real Madrid – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.99)
1-0
4 Derby v Preston – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.07)
5-3
5 Carlisle v Huddersfield – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.94)
1-2
8 goals in the Derby match ! if only they could have been distributed more evenly !!
All in all only cca HALF of the stake had been returned. I should have done more IN PLAY trading just to recuperate the cost of the acca.
I think I am going to give the OVERs a rest for now ..
Perhaps I will try UNDERS ! 
~~~~~~ MATCH ODDS ACCA ~~~~~~~~~~
Stoke nearly did it again . Phew !!
Banker of the day LEEDS had failed admirably . no wonder they are so hated in England (just joking
And the QPR match had been VOIDED because of the rain.
6 Selections Chosen
1 AC Milan v Man Utd (Laying AC Milan @ 3.28) 2-3
2 QPR v Watford (Laying Watford @ 3.71) VOID
3 Nottm Forest v Sheff Utd (Laying Sheff Utd @ 5.41) 1-0
4 Everton v Sp Lisbon (Laying Sp Lisbon @ 6.87) 2-1
5 Leeds v Walsall (Backing Leeds @ 1.41) 1-2
6 Stoke v Man City (Laying Stoke @ 3.6) 1-1
So only one down so to speak (Void match notwithstanding..)
4 out of 5 !
All in all only cca one third of the stake had been returned.
Again more IN PLAY trading should have been done.
~~~~~~ LAY DRAW ACCA ~~~~~~~~~~
As per initial calculation , only two matches had let me down .
The only problem lies with the low odds. And also the fact that 2 draws out 6 matches is kind of normal
~ 26 % 28% nearly 33 %. So no big prediction victory so to speak.
6 Selections Chosen
1 Cardiff v West Brom (Laying The Draw @ 3.66) 1-1
2 Hereford v Aldershot (Laying The Draw @ 3.6) 2-0
3 Leeds v Walsall (Laying The Draw @ 4.96)1-2
4 Lyon v Real Madrid (Laying The Draw @ 3.66) 1-0
5 Morecambe v Burton (Laying The Draw @ 3.76) 3-2
6 Stoke v Man City (Laying The Draw @ 3.49) 1-1
So , 4 out of 6 !
***
As to the 1-1- Correct Score Acca : they all lost !
Not expected all of them coming up , but still one of them should have come up – at least – according to my calculations
***
Speaking about drawing the line on the overs saga and all problems draw-related
here’s Aerosmith with “Draw The Line “
Only one leg of the acca came up – the much discussed-about Salernitana Triestina one)
The Dutch game finished 0-0 .
2 Selections Chosen
1 De Graafschap v Roosendaal (Backing De Graafschap @ 1.41) 0-0
2 Salernitana v Triestina (Laying The Draw @ 3.39) 1-2
I did want to place some money on CS 0-0 for the Dutch game – but alas it was not in play at Betfair; so I’d let it run.
The “fixed” match Salernitana -Triestina had finished 1 goal short from the “fixed” scoreline – 1-3.
As per my initial feeling, the OVER (2.5 goals) was the proper call.
This is one rule of thumb that will rarely fail you (namely that if the match is “fixed” then the correct bet it’s “over 2.5 goals”).
Elsewhere the Tenerife and Naval matches finished both on unders (1-0 & 0-0 ).
Have manged to nibble a few quid on the correct score market ; just enough to recover the cost of the accumulator. BTW, you can watch some of these matches on the Betfair Live Video -streaming site; (and gauge there and then about how these matches are going).
Remember : “PROTECT THE STAKE” should be the mantra du jour for every trader.
Maybe I should have done an acca with both UNDERS (under 2.5 goals that is) .
Oh well .. it was a very long shot anyways.
Here’s “Minus the Bear” singing about the Salernitana -Triestina match :
This Monday there aren’t too many matches that can catch my attention.
However I have drawn a smallish list of preferred bets :
2 Selections Chosen
1 De Graafschap v Roosendaal (Backing De Graafschap @ 1.41)
2 Salernitana v Triestina (Laying The Draw @ 3.39)
Doubles
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1 and 2 2.01 £2.00 £2.02
So it was only a double that I could muster !!
PS
Last minute info :
Seems that a lot of rumours are being circulated on the Betfair forum that the Triestina match is fixed . Either the correct score 1-3 has shrunk to 5 !! or the MO odds for Triestina had drifted to 15 !!
All in all it seems that the catch-all rule of thumb applies :
IF MATCH IS DEEMED to be FIXED then the RECOMMENDED BET
is OVERS (over 2.5 goals that is )
***
Also as a speculative acca , I am drawn towards a series of 1-1 correct scores draws .
Eg :
Tenerife – Mallorca
Naval – Guimaraes
Rizespor -Giresunspor
Unfortunately these high-street cowboys bookies will not let you place such trebles .
So I have restricted myself to a double only :
*
o et Type: Double
+ Double
+ Tenerife v Mallorca Half Time Correct Score
# 1-1 15/2
+ Naval v Guimaraes Half Time Correct Score
# 1-1 9/1
o Possible Payout 85.00 GBP
1 bet @
1.00 GBP
* Total Cost: 1.00 GBP
* Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 85.00 GBP
I’ll see if I can place more money on individual matches if they reach 1-1 sometime during the match.
As I say , no need for big stakes as this is pure speculation.
As always there is always one that lets you down . This time around it was Man City who’ve only managed a 1-1 draw against Stoke (Cup game that is).
A trade-mark shtoopid throw-in from Delap managed to get Stoke on the score sheet. Perhaps Stoke ought to play in the British handball league (or volleyball league)..
All the other matches went as expected though (five of them) :
6 Selections Chosen
1 Hannover v W Bremen (Laying The Draw @ 4.63) 1-5
2 Leicester v Scunthorpe (Backing Leicester @ 1.7) 5-1
3 Man City v Stoke (Backing Man City @ 1.51) 1-1
4 Gijon v Valencia (Laying Gijon @ 5.3) 1-1
5 L Orient v Leeds (Laying L Orient @ 4.42) 1-1
6 Brighton v Norwich (Laying Brighton @ 4.74) 1-2
So , 5 out of 6 !
A decent ratio methinks..
Here’s what usually Delap is doing . It’s anything but football..
