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~~~ WORST CASE acca ~~~
Not much to say : a bad day for the FE guys: 3 down out of 5
My reservations about Sevilla were right ; they are decent side and had won away..
Was wrong about advising a LAY of Milan though. They’d won easily.
1 Genoa v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 5.3) 3-0
2 Bari v AC Milan (Laying AC Milan @ 2.36) 0-2
3 Mallorca v Sevilla (Laying Sevilla @ 3.12) 1-3
4 Rennes v Lille (Laying Lille @ 3.66) 1-2
5 Blackburn v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 5.07) 3-0
~~~ BEST CASE acca ~~~
Since only 2 games came up , the returns did not help much : only cca 10% of the stake had been returned.
On the plus side for FE , their SHORT LIST has had a good week with 4 wins out of 5 ; if I’d only placed the bets on their short list !!
***
I will have to do some OS repairs (repairing my Windows OS that is ) so that I might not post that oftenly next week..
Friday results
One down : Hoffenheim v Mgladbach
1 Brescia v Ascoli (Laying Ascoli @ 6.42) 2-1
2 Bury v Shrewsbury (Laying Shrewsbury @ 4.2) 1-0
3 Maritimo v Nacional (Laying Nacional @ 4.2) 1-1
4 Hoffenheim v Mgladbach (Laying The Draw @ 3.87) 2-2
5 Roda JC v Heracles (Laying The Draw @ 3.93) 2-1
Got some of the stake back (80%) ;so no(t much) harm done.
Perhaps a good tactic when the odds are so lo to cover myself for only ONE MATCH DOWN.
In this case I should have covered only for 4-folds. It makes sense in the end as the high LAY odds indicate a higher degree of probability; hence the observations that for these types of accas (low BACK odds or high LAY odds) it makes sense to cover myself for only ONE MATCH DOWN. (need to remember this extra rule)
The equalizer in the German match happened two minutes before the final whistle.
So I missed the last stop of the German acca express .
Regarding the German league . here is what some of the other bloggers (http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/) are saying :
>>>
Not that I needed to, but I did actually finish off the Bundesliga ratings yesterday. The results weren’t that great overall – of the big leagues, Germany was the worst for some reason hitting at an overall rate of 23.23%. It seems to be a league where anything can happen, and often does.
<<<
It seems that I miss a lot of these German legs of the accumulators ..
At least their trains are more accurate.
A smallish kind of acca for a quiet Friday evening
5 Selections Chosen
1 Brescia v Ascoli (Laying Ascoli @ 6.42)
2 Bury v Shrewsbury (Laying Shrewsbury @ 4.2)
3 Maritimo v Nacional (Laying Nacional @ 4.2)
4 Hoffenheim v Mgladbach (Laying The Draw @ 3.87)
5 Roda JC v Heracles (Laying The Draw @ 3.93)
5-Folds
4-Folds
Trebles
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2 and 3 2.04 £0.10 £0.10
1,2 and 4 2.09
4-folds and trebles had been covered too
As per the recent trend , one match scuppered the acca.
Some strange ref. decisions gifted the match to Bayern though. I guess it evens out..
5 Selections Chosen
1 Karlsruhe v 1860 Munich (Laying The Draw @ 3.66) 3-1
2 Newcastle v Coventry (Backing Newcastle @ 1.45) 4-1
3 B Munich v Fiorentina (Backing B Munich @ 1.42) 2-1
4 Porto v Arsenal (Laying Arsenal @ 3.76) 2-1
5 C Palace v Reading (Laying Reading @ 3.39) 1-3
The returned monies were in the region of 80% of the original stake
The prices weren’t that good I must say..
As you can see this technique (of covering X-folds) allows you to march forward even if your stake is marginally corroded. Once a full acca comes in , all of these small corrosions would be compensated.
There is a psychological factor in it – in that you do get something back ; it’s less punishing than when you lose the entire acca stake..
Do not think I will be posting anything for tomorrow ..
PS
The betfair world was up in arms because of some Betfair outage that happened when the matches were supposed to finish. Lots of people lost money because of that..
Not much to elaborate on todays set of matches .
The lay of Arsenal is based on the fact that Arsenal have a few players injured.
I might drop a few pennies on them is they take the lead (just to cover the acca stake )
Would have liked to add some scottish games too but I could not find them among the multiples at Betfair
5 Selections Chosen
1 Karlsruhe v 1860 Munich (Laying The Draw @ 3.66)
2 Newcastle v Coventry (Backing Newcastle @ 1.45)
3 B Munich v Fiorentina (Backing B Munich @ 1.42)
4 Porto v Arsenal (Laying Arsenal @ 3.76)
5 C Palace v Reading (Laying Reading @ 3.39)
5-Folds
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4 and 5 5.54 £0.50 £2.27
4-Folds
Trebles
Have covered for trebles and 4-folds too
The OVERS ACCA could have been better as I have only hit 2 OVERS out of 5
5 Selections Chosen
1 Bristol City v Leicester – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.24)
1-1
2 Plymouth v Swansea – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.58)
1-1
3 Lyon v Real Madrid – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.99)
1-0
4 Derby v Preston – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.07)
5-3
5 Carlisle v Huddersfield – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.94)
1-2
8 goals in the Derby match ! if only they could have been distributed more evenly !!
All in all only cca HALF of the stake had been returned. I should have done more IN PLAY trading just to recuperate the cost of the acca.
I think I am going to give the OVERs a rest for now ..
Perhaps I will try UNDERS ! 
~~~~~~ MATCH ODDS ACCA ~~~~~~~~~~
Stoke nearly did it again . Phew !!
Banker of the day LEEDS had failed admirably . no wonder they are so hated in England (just joking
And the QPR match had been VOIDED because of the rain.
6 Selections Chosen
1 AC Milan v Man Utd (Laying AC Milan @ 3.28) 2-3
2 QPR v Watford (Laying Watford @ 3.71) VOID
3 Nottm Forest v Sheff Utd (Laying Sheff Utd @ 5.41) 1-0
4 Everton v Sp Lisbon (Laying Sp Lisbon @ 6.87) 2-1
5 Leeds v Walsall (Backing Leeds @ 1.41) 1-2
6 Stoke v Man City (Laying Stoke @ 3.6) 1-1
So only one down so to speak (Void match notwithstanding..)
4 out of 5 !
All in all only cca one third of the stake had been returned.
Again more IN PLAY trading should have been done.
~~~~~~ LAY DRAW ACCA ~~~~~~~~~~
As per initial calculation , only two matches had let me down .
The only problem lies with the low odds. And also the fact that 2 draws out 6 matches is kind of normal
~ 26 % 28% nearly 33 %. So no big prediction victory so to speak.
6 Selections Chosen
1 Cardiff v West Brom (Laying The Draw @ 3.66) 1-1
2 Hereford v Aldershot (Laying The Draw @ 3.6) 2-0
3 Leeds v Walsall (Laying The Draw @ 4.96)1-2
4 Lyon v Real Madrid (Laying The Draw @ 3.66) 1-0
5 Morecambe v Burton (Laying The Draw @ 3.76) 3-2
6 Stoke v Man City (Laying The Draw @ 3.49) 1-1
So , 4 out of 6 !
***
As to the 1-1- Correct Score Acca : they all lost !
Not expected all of them coming up , but still one of them should have come up – at least – according to my calculations
***
Speaking about drawing the line on the overs saga and all problems draw-related
here’s Aerosmith with “Draw The Line “
I am trying to get in the UNDERS/OVERS business again . But I need to tread carefully and cover myself with lots of trebles and x-folds as these markets are very difficult to asses.
Here is the OVERS (2.5 goals) acca for tonight :
5 Selections Chosen
1 Bristol City v Leicester – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.24)
2 Plymouth v Swansea – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.58)
3 Lyon v Real Madrid – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.99)
4 Derby v Preston – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.07)
5 Carlisle v Huddersfield – Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.94)
5-Folds
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4 and 5 46.51 £0.20 £9.10
4-Folds
Trebles
Doubles
Total Backer’s Stake: £4.00
Your total potential win: £38.62
I have covered, doubles, trebles , the lot; the big odds have helped in that direction too.
Looking over the list I should have added the Everton-Sporting as an UNDER 2.5 goals match.
Forgot about it..
~~~~~~ MATCH ODDS ACCA ~~~~~~~~~~
I am hoping that Rory Delap does not destroy another acca of mine and that Stoke will not win.
The lay of Milan is based on the fact that there is too much respect between these two and they will play carefully – perhaps for a draw. (David Beckham and all that..)
6 Selections Chosen
1 AC Milan v Man Utd (Laying AC Milan @ 3.28)
2 QPR v Watford (Laying Watford @ 3.71)
3 Nottm Forest v Sheff Utd (Laying Sheff Utd @ 5.41)
4 Everton v Sp Lisbon (Laying Sp Lisbon @ 6.87)
5 Leeds v Walsall (Backing Leeds @ 1.41)
6 Stoke v Man City (Laying Stoke @ 3.6)
6-Folds
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4,5 and 6 5.56 £0.20 £0.91
5-Folds
4-Folds
Again , all covers for 4-folds and 5-folds. the odds are not that good though ..
~~~~~~ LAY DRAW ACCA ~~~~~~~~~~
This is a more risky one but I am trying to “diversify”
6 Selections Chosen
1 Cardiff v West Brom (Laying The Draw @ 3.66)
2 Hereford v Aldershot (Laying The Draw @ 3.6)
3 Leeds v Walsall (Laying The Draw @ 4.96)
4 Lyon v Real Madrid (Laying The Draw @ 3.66)
5 Morecambe v Burton (Laying The Draw @ 3.76)
6 Stoke v Man City (Laying The Draw @ 3.49)
6-Folds
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4,5 and 6 6.28 £0.20 £1.06
5-Folds
4-Folds
Most of the money went on the 4-folds cover because according to my calculation it should only be scuppered by TWO MATCHES maximum (out of six) .
Hence the cover of two matches down (4 folds).
~~~~~~~~~ The 1-1- correct score acca ~~~~~
My love affair with 1-1 correct scores continues unabated.
Here is another 1-1- correct score acca for tonight.
Scottish Division 2 Dumbarton v Stirling Albion
16-02-2010 19:30
Correct Score
Draw 1 – 1 @ 5/1
Coca Cola League 1 Matches Carlisle v Huddersfield
16-02-2010 19:45
Correct Score
Draw 1 – 1 @ 5/1
Champions League Matches AC Milan v Man Utd Money-Back Special
16-02-2010 19:45
Correct Score
Draw 1 – 1 @ 9/2
Patent
7 lines at £0.20 per line
Total stake for this bet: £1.40
Potential returns: £63.50
I should be forgiven as it only a £1.4 stake (with some online bookie as I could not find a Dumbarton market on Betfair).
Have covered the PATENT though to make sure that I get something back even if only one of them finishes 1-1.
PATENT = 3 singles + 3 doubles + 1 treble = 7 bets – as stated above.
***
I will see now if I can do some IN RUNNING corrections on the fly ( i.e. how to recuperate the stake if things go wrongly – in play..)
Only one leg of the acca came up – the much discussed-about Salernitana Triestina one)
The Dutch game finished 0-0 .
2 Selections Chosen
1 De Graafschap v Roosendaal (Backing De Graafschap @ 1.41) 0-0
2 Salernitana v Triestina (Laying The Draw @ 3.39) 1-2
I did want to place some money on CS 0-0 for the Dutch game – but alas it was not in play at Betfair; so I’d let it run.
The “fixed” match Salernitana -Triestina had finished 1 goal short from the “fixed” scoreline – 1-3.
As per my initial feeling, the OVER (2.5 goals) was the proper call.
This is one rule of thumb that will rarely fail you (namely that if the match is “fixed” then the correct bet it’s “over 2.5 goals”).
Elsewhere the Tenerife and Naval matches finished both on unders (1-0 & 0-0 ).
Have manged to nibble a few quid on the correct score market ; just enough to recover the cost of the accumulator. BTW, you can watch some of these matches on the Betfair Live Video -streaming site; (and gauge there and then about how these matches are going).
Remember : “PROTECT THE STAKE” should be the mantra du jour for every trader.
Maybe I should have done an acca with both UNDERS (under 2.5 goals that is) .
Oh well .. it was a very long shot anyways.
Here’s “Minus the Bear” singing about the Salernitana -Triestina match :
This Monday there aren’t too many matches that can catch my attention.
However I have drawn a smallish list of preferred bets :
2 Selections Chosen
1 De Graafschap v Roosendaal (Backing De Graafschap @ 1.41)
2 Salernitana v Triestina (Laying The Draw @ 3.39)
Doubles
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1 and 2 2.01 £2.00 £2.02
So it was only a double that I could muster !!
PS
Last minute info :
Seems that a lot of rumours are being circulated on the Betfair forum that the Triestina match is fixed . Either the correct score 1-3 has shrunk to 5 !! or the MO odds for Triestina had drifted to 15 !!
All in all it seems that the catch-all rule of thumb applies :
IF MATCH IS DEEMED to be FIXED then the RECOMMENDED BET
is OVERS (over 2.5 goals that is )
***
Also as a speculative acca , I am drawn towards a series of 1-1 correct scores draws .
Eg :
Tenerife – Mallorca
Naval – Guimaraes
Rizespor -Giresunspor
Unfortunately these high-street cowboys bookies will not let you place such trebles .
So I have restricted myself to a double only :
*
o et Type: Double
+ Double
+ Tenerife v Mallorca Half Time Correct Score
# 1-1 15/2
+ Naval v Guimaraes Half Time Correct Score
# 1-1 9/1
o Possible Payout 85.00 GBP
1 bet @
1.00 GBP
* Total Cost: 1.00 GBP
* Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 85.00 GBP
I’ll see if I can place more money on individual matches if they reach 1-1 sometime during the match.
As I say , no need for big stakes as this is pure speculation.
All main bets recommended by FE have obliged so much so that the acca returned the expected ratio – at cca 2/1 odds
4 Selections Chosen
1 Bochum v Hoffenheim (Laying Hoffenheim @ 2.55) 2-1
2 Sampdoria v Fiorentina (Laying Fiorentina @ 3.6) 2-0
3 Cagliari v Bari (Laying Bari @ 4.96) 3-1
4 Auxerre v Rennes (Laying Rennes @ 3.49) 1-0
The combo between main-bets and the short-listed bets has had an equally good return – bar the Stuggart game where Hamburg managed an away win .
This has scuppered the 7-leg acca but I’ve still managed to win something because I have covered the 6-folds bets .
The returned ratio was in the average region of a 3.4 odds single bet.
The average could have been more (cca 4) had Hamburg not won at Stutggart.
7 Selections Chosen
1 Cagliari v Bari (Laying Bari @ 4.96) 3-1
2 Catania v Atalanta (Laying Atalanta @ 4.63) 0-0
3 Sampdoria v Fiorentina (Laying Fiorentina @ 3.6) 2-0
4 Nancy v Paris St-G (Laying Paris St-G @ 3.12) 0-0
5 Auxerre v Rennes (Laying Rennes @ 3.49) 1-0
6 Bochum v Hoffenheim (Laying Hoffenheim @ 2.52) 2-1
7 Stuttgart v Hamburg (Laying Hamburg @ 3.76) 1-3
Observation
I am already covering for the eventuality of some of the FE tips failing by covering the LAYS and the X-folds variants – i.e. a so called “worse-case-scenario“.
This weekend I have covered a scenario of best-case-scenario in the shape of placing an acca composed entirely of 1-0 correct scores.
In hindsight this was a bit too ambitious. Perhaps a better strategy is to solely add all recommended HOME WINS in one single accumulator . This will cover a best-case scenario in a more balanced fashion..
Finally , since Auxerre had saved my behind – as it was the last leg of both accumulators , here is a tribute to the most celebrated son of Auxerre : mathematician Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier – best known for the “Fourier transformations” :
